Linux and new versions of windows have the same problem for future use and adoption: Supporting existing windows applications. Microsoft will always be ahead of that game because they can easily change the playing field with a new release of windows.
However, timing is everything. Since not many people have yet to adopt those new methods for creating software for the windows platform targeted at Vista, Linux still has a chance to stay alive and compete regardless of how nice and flashy new versions of windows may become.
Once the Wine 'catches up' there will be next to no reason for home users to use windows anymore. And considering the new developments on SMB for activedirectory integration, it is only a matter of time before windows can be phased out at the workplace.
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